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Let's Play Conspiracy Theory

Discussion in 'X-T2, X-T1, X-T20, X-T10' started by kerrydeare, Mar 17, 2017.

  1. kerrydeare

    kerrydeare X-T1 Diehard

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    I'm a satisfied X-T1 user: two bodies and five XF lenses that have performed flawlessly for over two years. As an amateur I've learned to coexist with my slightly off-axis sense of what makes a good image for almost 50 years.

    Almost since its introduction, the X-T2 has been a scarce commodity. It's also been widely praised as a significant advance over the X-T1, and as a genuinely superior camera compared to the competition (however one defines "competition"). In short this camera is a money maker for Fujifilm, particularly when additional Fuji items are added into the marketing mix (and Fujifilm lenses appear to be on the high end price-wise). So why doesn't Fujifilm ramp up production and distribution to meet demand?

    One clue may come from the comparative pricing of the X-T1. This camera still lists at or above its original price when introduced in 2014 (I haven't checked this assertion in great detail). I've also no idea of relative sales volumes for the two models, but it's reasonable to assume that lack of availability of the newer model affects this ratio adversely. With the X-T2 physically out of reach, the X-T1 is the only choice for certain users.

    Another clue may come from Sony's decision to cease production of the sensors used in the XT-1 in favor of the newer sensors in the XT-2. In other words Fuji is probably not planning on additional volume production of the XT-1 much beyond using up existing inventories until they're exhausted. For the sake of argument, I assume that parts for the X-T2 are readily available (perhaps a weak assumption).

    What if anything can one deduce from this collection of facts, suppositions, and guesses? I'm going to go with this: Fuji is limiting X-T2 availability until they work off existing X-T1 inventories (both parts and finished products). They don't want to lower prices and thus undercut other camera models, and they don't want to make to X-T2 so available that buyers will ignore the $400 or so US price difference and pass on the X-T1. Or something like that (humor).

    I readily admit that these conjectures are idle speculation. Just tossing this out prior to getting to today's self-imposed agenda.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2017
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  2. GregWard

    GregWard Premium Member

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    My immediate reaction would be that you are over-thinking it. How about a much simpler explanation that they can't easily ramp up production to meet the high level demand? Also they probably don't want to do so. Surely there was bound to be pent up demand for the X-T2? If they had geared up to meet the whole of that demand in - say - the first month then they would be hopelessly over-geared for the ongoing demand - which I'd suggest was bound to be less than the initial sales.
     
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  3. Nickcv

    Nickcv Well-Known Member

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    At one point WEX Photographic in the UK had 66 used X-T1 bodies available after the introduction of the X-T2. I'd say that makes the X-T2 a pretty popular camera and I suspect Fuji are struggling with demand.
     
  4. robert

    robert Administrator Staff Member

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    Apple is the gold standard when it comes to managing rollout of new models. There are simply no other companies in the world that do it better...they minimize any overstock of old models, which means they don't have much inventory leftover that requires markdowns.

    On the other hand, when they release new models, especially phones, they can be constrained due to initial demand.

    It's simply not very easy to do this; i.e., balance things perfectly, with a 1:1 ratio of production to sale, at a launch.

    There is also some value to having a product to have a waiting list; if a product is perceived as 'hard to get' then it must be really good, right?

    The key is not to have the wait be too long, so that people give up and buy another brand.

    My guess here is that there probably aren't a whole lot of X-T1s at Fuji, but there may be some new ones still in the distribution channel.

    As an aside, the X-T20 is the best buy...
     
  5. StephenL

    StephenL Pixel scutcher

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    Not really a supply issue here in the UK. Most dealers have stock a plenty.
     
  6. Richard_R

    Richard_R Eclectic eccentric

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    Same in Australia. X-T2 bodies are now starting to be discounted.
    I think the truth is closer to Fuji being poor at production planning.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2017
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  7. robert

    robert Administrator Staff Member

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    Actually some would argue this is by design :)
     
  8. StephenL

    StephenL Pixel scutcher

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    It's a fine balancing act between over-production and shortages.
     
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  9. Richard_R

    Richard_R Eclectic eccentric

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    So you are saying that Fuji have this grand plan to restrict product availability in the US whilst simulataneously not restricting availability in other markets? Wait till your leader hears about that the Tweets will fly.
     
  10. robert

    robert Administrator Staff Member

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    No, not what I'm saying. :)

    It's better to estimate a little low than too high. As far as regional availability differences that's to be expected as shipments ebb and flow
     
  11. TheEmrys

    TheEmrys Premium Member

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    Why would too high be an issue? Its a long term production. The X-T2 made today could be sold next year or even the year after. The X-T2 that is backordered today runs the risk of being cancelled and not ever purchased.

    I would argue that it comes down to production lines for regions. Fuji chooses to sell with lots of regional designations. My X-T2 is for purchase in my region only (either US or North America, can't quite remember). However, my xpro2 was a Middle East/Africa model. There wasn't aything differemt about it physically, just the box had a sticker.

    I suspect the X-T2 shortage comes from only underestimating the demand in North America. It could even be as simple as a shortage of boxes for North America.
     
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  12. cug

    cug Premium Member

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    Because stock is expensive. It's a balancing act between being able to deliver quickly (didn't happen for quite a while) and having too much stock and/or flooding a market to a point that only discounts can move the stock. In case nobody else noticed, Fuji seems better off with selling their stuff this year, no significant discount in the US so far.
     
  13. TheEmrys

    TheEmrys Premium Member

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    Wouldn't that depend on setting up new production runs and the cost? Generally, its better to produce more up front and store them than to halt production, retool (for the X-T20, for example), and then retool again to crank out more X-T2's. Stock is only expensive if too much of it sits too long.
     
  14. cug

    cug Premium Member

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    It really depends. Sure, if re-tooling costs you a lot that is true, but I don't think that's the driving factor. You really want to make exactly as many as you can sell, if you make a few less, that's only keeping interest up, if you make too many, it'll drive prices down and prices rarely ever recover from something like that.
     
  15. liggy

    liggy Camera Fondler

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    This conspiracy rings as true to me as most stories on Breitbart. :D
     
  16. lawsofphysics

    lawsofphysics Premium Member

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    Conspiracy theories are extremely fragile unless one intentionally ignores Occam's Razor.

    At the same time, invoking Occam's Razor means taking into account everything we know (as of this writing knowledge is still not based on incomplete information) about the hypothesis.

    In this case only FUJIFILM has complete knowledge. So what's the simplest explanation?
     
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  17. StephenL

    StephenL Pixel scutcher

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    The simplest explanation is that there were more people in the US who wanted the camera than Fuji anticipated, and they got it right(ish) in the UK. Or is there a simpler explanation than that?
     
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  18. johant

    johant Premium Member

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    I think it's a fair explanation indeed.

    I don't see a shortage here either.
     
  19. Iew

    Iew Member

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    Or, they want to limit the production run. Then they ramp up the production of the XT3.
     
  20. Dr.S

    Dr.S Premium Member

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    bad, bad Fuji... 75 % customs tax as from tomorrow on !
     

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